Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 23, 2020
Updated: Tue Jun 23 08:37:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jun 26, 2020 - Sat, Jun 27, 2020
D7
Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - Tue, Jun 30, 2020
D5
Sat, Jun 27, 2020 - Sun, Jun 28, 2020
D8
Tue, Jun 30, 2020 - Wed, Jul 01, 2020
D6
Sun, Jun 28, 2020 - Mon, Jun 29, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230835
SPC AC 230835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020
Valid 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Divergence of solutions between the medium-range models manifests
almost immediately at the beginning of the period (Friday 6-26), as
the GFS and ECMWF differ substantial in the progression of the
mid-level short-wave trough affecting the north-central portion of
the country. The ECMWF progresses this trough quickly eastward
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley region Days 4 and 5, while the GFS
maintains this feature over the northern and central Plains
vicinity. This -- in turn -- affects evolution of the upper low
initially lingering over Quebec, which the ECMWF brings southward
into New England later in the period (Monday 6-29).
The models a bit more consistently depict an upper low expected to
evolve over the West and then linger there through much or all of
the period. But, the aforementioned differences in pattern
evolution east of the Rockies preclude efforts to highlight any
concentrations of severe-weather risk, despite likelihood for
widespread convection with daily afternoon peaks in
coverage/intensity expected.
..Goss.. 06/23/2020
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