Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 24, 2020
Updated: Wed Jun 24 08:46:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Jun 27, 2020 - Sun, Jun 28, 2020
D7
Tue, Jun 30, 2020 - Wed, Jul 01, 2020
D5
Sun, Jun 28, 2020 - Mon, Jun 29, 2020
D8
Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - Thu, Jul 02, 2020
D6
Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - Tue, Jun 30, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240843
SPC AC 240843
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models -- in reasonably good agreement through roughly
Day 5 (Sunday June 28) -- suggest amplification of the upper flow
field over the U.S. with time. This will occur as a trough digging
southeastward into the western U.S. evolves into a closed low, and
in response, downstream ridging increases over the central states
west of a developing eastern U.S. trough.
While some severe risk may exist from the lower Great Lakes region
into the central Appalachians ahead of a weak surface front and
associated mid-level short-wave trough, details with respect to any
relatively concentrated area of risk remain difficult to discern.
Afterward, a relatively quiescent period with respect to organized
severe-weather risk is expected across a majority of the U.S.
through middle parts of the medium-range period. Eventually, an
eastward ejection of the western U.S. trough may occur, but the
models differ substantially in this evolution. As such, any severe
potential appears highly uncertain, precluding issuance of any risk
areas at this time.
..Goss.. 06/24/2020
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