Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 25, 2020
Updated: Thu Jun 25 08:23:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Jun 28, 2020 - Mon, Jun 29, 2020
D7
Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - Thu, Jul 02, 2020
D5
Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - Tue, Jun 30, 2020
D8
Thu, Jul 02, 2020 - Fri, Jul 03, 2020
D6
Tue, Jun 30, 2020 - Wed, Jul 01, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250820
SPC AC 250820
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in decent agreement for much of the period
over the east, with both the GFS and ECMWF depicting an upper low
which drifts south from eastern Canada into the Northeast, and then
lingers over the region as a low/trough for most if not all of the
period.
Farther west, however, variance between the models in terms of the
upper flow field exists even from early in the period, with the
smaller-scale features embedded in the broader flow.
With time, even the evolution of the larger features -- namely an
upper trough over the western U.S. -- is handled quite differently.
The GFS depicts a substantial piece of the trough ejecting eastward
across the Rockies and into the central Plains Days 5-6, while the
ECMWF maintains a more cohesive trough over the West, with only
minor perturbations ejecting east into the central CONUS.
Overall, severe risk appears likely to remain relatively limited
across the U.S., with no obvious, larger, organized severe weather
events apparent at this time. But given the aforementioned
differences between the models suggesting lack of predictability
with the evolution of the western U.S. trough, uncertainty remains
high with respect to convective potential through the period.
..Goss.. 06/25/2020
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