Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 26, 2020
Updated: Fri Jun 26 08:54:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - Tue, Jun 30, 2020
D7
Thu, Jul 02, 2020 - Fri, Jul 03, 2020
D5
Tue, Jun 30, 2020 - Wed, Jul 01, 2020
D8
Fri, Jul 03, 2020 - Sat, Jul 04, 2020
D6
Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - Thu, Jul 02, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260852
SPC AC 260852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement during the
period, with respect to the broader pattern evolution. The GFS and
ECMWF both depict a persistent, slow-moving upper low/trough
centered over the Northeast through at least Day 6, followed by a
weakening trend and divergence in model depiction of the feature.
Meanwhile, ridging is shown to prevail over central portions of the
country through the period, as a trough over the West weakens
gradually with time as it tries to advance eastward and encounters
the persistent ridging.
Models generally agree that a fairly substantial short-wave trough
-- a part of the larger-scale western feature -- will eject
northeastward across the northern Intermountain Region/northern High
Plains Day 5. This would likely bring an increase in severe risk to
portions of the northern High Plains vicinity, but there are enough
differences with this evolution amongst the models to preclude a
confident assessment of the area of greatest risk. Therefore, will
refrain from introduction of a 15% risk area at this time.
Some suggestions that another, weaker piece of ejecting short-wave
energy may cross the northern Plains Day 6 is evident, which could
again support some severe potential. But, as with Day 5,
uncertainty precludes a confident assessment of this risk.
Finally, with the western trough continuing to weaken/deamplify with
time, and ridging likely to increase across much of the country,
risk for organized severe weather appears unlikely at this time
through latter stages of the period.
..Goss.. 06/26/2020
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