Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 27, 2020
Updated: Sat Jun 27 09:00:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
181,853
1,477,558
Bismarck, ND...Grand Island, NE...Minot, ND...Kearney, NE...North Platte, NE...
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jun 30, 2020 - Wed, Jul 01, 2020
D7
Fri, Jul 03, 2020 - Sat, Jul 04, 2020
D5
Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - Thu, Jul 02, 2020
D8
Sat, Jul 04, 2020 - Sun, Jul 05, 2020
D6
Thu, Jul 02, 2020 - Fri, Jul 03, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270858
SPC AC 270858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models appear to remain in reasonable agreement with
respect to the general large-scale pattern through the medium-range
period. An upper low is progged to linger over the Northeast days
4-5 (Tuesday June 30/Wednesday July 1), before moving offshore,
leaving weak troughing in its wake the remainder of the period.
Meanwhile farther west, the western U.S. trough will continue
ejecting northeastward across the northern and central Plains and
into the Canadian Prairie, its eastward progression impeded by
persistent upper ridging over the central CONUS. In the wake of the
initial ejection, ridging is progged to reintensify over the Plains,
with troughing to re-evolve over the northwestern states and remain
there through the period.
Overall, with ridging to increasingly prevail across the U.S. with
time, little potential for organized severe weather is evident at
this time. The exception will be on Day 4 (Tuesday), as the western
trough ejects. A roughly north-south surface trough/front is
expected to lie across the northern and central Plains, and should
focus ascent -- and subsequently thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. Though meridional/southerly flow aloft will be
sufficient to support organized storms, and thus some risk for hail
and damaging winds. Thus, a 15% risk area is being added from North
Dakota to northwestern Kansas.
As troughing shifts northward toward/into Canada into Day 5, lesser
severe risk is expected, with no areas of concentrated severe
potential evident through the end of the period.
..Goss.. 06/27/2020
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