Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 28, 2020
Updated: Sun Jun 28 08:57:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
154,807
7,081,453
Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Fargo, ND...
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Jul 01, 2020 - Thu, Jul 02, 2020
D7
Sat, Jul 04, 2020 - Sun, Jul 05, 2020
D5
Thu, Jul 02, 2020 - Fri, Jul 03, 2020
D8
Sun, Jul 05, 2020 - Mon, Jul 06, 2020
D6
Fri, Jul 03, 2020 - Sat, Jul 04, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280855
SPC AC 280855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models remain in generally good agreement with respect
to the large-scale pattern over the U.S. through the medium-range
period. Day 4 (Wednesday 7-1), a negatively tilted short-wave
trough will continue advancing northeastward across the northern
Plains, likely shifting into the Canadian Prairie by early in the
Day 5 period. As this occurs, ample ascent will likely aid in
weakening of the cap near the weak/advancing surface front to allow
scattered thunderstorm development to occur. Given moderately
strong, meridional flow aloft, a few organized/severe storms are
expected, and thus a 15% risk area will be included across this
region.
In the wake of this feature, stagnation of the upper pattern is
expected, with a trough remaining near/just off the Pacific
Northwest Coast, and troughing/cyclonic flow lingering in the East.
Between the two features broad/relatively flat ridging is expected
across much of the country.
On the northern fringe of the evolving/broad ridge -- in the
vicinity of the U.S./Canada border -- a belt of fast/weakly
anticyclonic flow is expected to evolve. Weak disturbances moving
through this westerly flow will likely result in episodic severe
convective events, but timing/location of these individual events
remains highly uncertain. Therefore, no risk areas will be
introduced at this time in the Day 5-8 portion of the period.
..Goss.. 06/28/2020
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