Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 30, 2020
Updated: Tue Jun 30 08:34:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jul 03, 2020 - Sat, Jul 04, 2020
D7
Mon, Jul 06, 2020 - Tue, Jul 07, 2020
D5
Sat, Jul 04, 2020 - Sun, Jul 05, 2020
D8
Tue, Jul 07, 2020 - Wed, Jul 08, 2020
D6
Sun, Jul 05, 2020 - Mon, Jul 06, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 300832
SPC AC 300832
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the medium-range models are in general agreement that
deamplification of the upper pattern over the U.S. will occur during
the period, though the general flavor of western and eastern U.S.
troughing with an intervening central U.S. ridge should prevail.
With that said, subtle features aloft are -- as expected -- handled
quite differently in terms of location/progression which, in turn,
manifests as eventual differences on the larger scales amongst the
models, as the period progresses.
At this time, the greatest risk for severe storms appears likely to
remain over the northern U.S. within an anticylonic arc from the
northern Intermountain Region to the Great Lakes. Here, fast
westerly flow on the northern periphery of the central U.S. ridge
will likely prevail, with subtle disturbances ejecting from the
western trough and moving quickly through this flow field, and
modulating greater periods of convective/severe potential. However,
with these small-scale disturbances very difficult to quantify in
terms of timing and location -- even with the first of these
features moving through the flow Day 4, whose location and timing
differs amongst the models -- no risk areas will be introduced at
this time.
..Goss.. 06/30/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
