Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 1, 2020
Updated: Wed Jul 1 08:11:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Jul 04, 2020 - Sun, Jul 05, 2020
D7
Tue, Jul 07, 2020 - Wed, Jul 08, 2020
D5
Sun, Jul 05, 2020 - Mon, Jul 06, 2020
D8
Wed, Jul 08, 2020 - Thu, Jul 09, 2020
D6
Mon, Jul 06, 2020 - Tue, Jul 07, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010809
SPC AC 010809
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
General agreement between medium-range models is evident with
respect to larger-scale features at this time, with overall
maintenance of low-amplitude western U.S. troughing, and downstream
ridging over the central and into the eastern U.S. through the
period. Along the northern periphery of the central U.S. ridge, a
belt of moderate flow is expected, affecting roughly the northern
third of the U.S. and Canada.
Within this belt of flow, multiple small-scale perturbations will
advance sequentially eastward, and will likely be associated with
episodes of enhanced storm coverage/severe potential. However,
given that the timing/location of these mobile disturbances is
difficult to discern beyond short-range forecasts, no risk areas
will be included at present.
Elsewhere, potential for organized severe weather potential appears
low through the period.
..Goss.. 07/01/2020
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