Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 2, 2020
Updated: Thu Jul 2 08:49:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Jul 05, 2020 - Mon, Jul 06, 2020
D7
Wed, Jul 08, 2020 - Thu, Jul 09, 2020
D5
Mon, Jul 06, 2020 - Tue, Jul 07, 2020
D8
Thu, Jul 09, 2020 - Fri, Jul 10, 2020
D6
Tue, Jul 07, 2020 - Wed, Jul 08, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020847
SPC AC 020847
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models remain in reasonable large-scale agreement with
respect to evolution of the general synoptic pattern, as they
continue to maintain general upper troughing over the northwestern
U.S., with a belt of enhanced westerly/anticylonically arcing flow
across the northern tier of the U.S. on the northern periphery of
the dominant central U.S. ridge.
In this pattern, multiple episodes of convection/severe risk are
expected across the northern Intermountain region/northern Plains,
and at times eastward into the Great Lakes. Some risk may extend at
times as far east as the northeastern states, as disturbances crest
the ridge and turn southeastward. Some risk may also extend
southward at times across the High Plains region, with disturbances
moving through the weaker flow field aloft, south of the main belt
of westerlies.
Still, highlighting days -- and particularly sub-regions -- where a
concentration of storms/severe potential may eventually manifest
remains quite difficult within this pattern. As such, no areas will
be highlighted at this time, though episodic/daily risk areas will
likely need to be considered in future outlooks.
..Goss.. 07/02/2020
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