Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 3, 2020
Updated: Fri Jul 3 08:44:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Jul 06, 2020 - Tue, Jul 07, 2020
D7
Thu, Jul 09, 2020 - Fri, Jul 10, 2020
D5
Tue, Jul 07, 2020 - Wed, Jul 08, 2020
D8
Fri, Jul 10, 2020 - Sat, Jul 11, 2020
D6
Wed, Jul 08, 2020 - Thu, Jul 09, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 030842
SPC AC 030842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020
Valid 061200Z - 111200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance is in good agreement that the moderately
strong flow will arc anticyclonically from central/northern CA to
the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes and through the Northeast
through the middle of next week. Several shortwave troughs are
expected to move within this belt of faster flow aloft during the
period, the strongest of which is currently forecast to move into
the northern Plains D6/Wednesday. Moderate to strong unstable
buoyancy is anticipated across the northern Plains from D4/Monday
through D6/Wednesday. Consequently, severe weather is possible each
time a shortwave trough interacts with this instability. However,
correctly forecasting the strength of any of subtle shortwave
troughs as well as the resulting mesoscale boundaries is very
difficult at this forecast range. Consequently, no areas will be
highlighted with this outlook, though episodic/daily risk areas will
likely need to be considered in future outlooks.
..Mosier.. 07/03/2020
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