Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 5, 2020
Updated: Sun Jul 5 08:52:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Jul 08, 2020 - Thu, Jul 09, 2020
D7
Sat, Jul 11, 2020 - Sun, Jul 12, 2020
D5
Thu, Jul 09, 2020 - Fri, Jul 10, 2020
D8
Sun, Jul 12, 2020 - Mon, Jul 13, 2020
D6
Fri, Jul 10, 2020 - Sat, Jul 11, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050850
SPC AC 050850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains
on D4/Wednesday with an attendant surface low moving just ahead of
it. As this surface low moves northeastward, an associated cold
front is expected to move southeastward across the Upper Midwest,
interacting with the moist and unstable air mass in place over the
region. Thunderstorms are expected along this front, some of which
could be severe. The better vertical shear will likely remain behind
the front, limiting the severe potential. Additionally, the overall
convective evolution on D3/Tuesday remains uncertain, which has
downstream impacts on predictability on D4/Wednesday. Given these
factors, will not include any probabilities over the Upper Midwest
with this outlook.
From D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, upper ridging is expected to
build over the Southwest while a belt of enhanced westerly flow
persists from northern CA/Pacific Northwest through the Upper
Midwest. Several shortwave troughs are expected to move through this
westerly flow aloft and potentially interact with the warm, moist,
and unstable air mass across the central/northern Plains and
mid/upper MS Valley. However, highlighting areas of great risk
within this pattern is difficult due to the subtle nature of the
shortwave troughs and general poor predictability. As such, no areas
will be highlighted at this time, though some severe areas will
likely need to be considered in future outlooks.
..Mosier.. 07/05/2020
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