Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 6, 2020
Updated: Mon Jul 6 08:31:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jul 09, 2020 - Fri, Jul 10, 2020
D7
Sun, Jul 12, 2020 - Mon, Jul 13, 2020
D5
Fri, Jul 10, 2020 - Sat, Jul 11, 2020
D8
Mon, Jul 13, 2020 - Tue, Jul 14, 2020
D6
Sat, Jul 11, 2020 - Sun, Jul 12, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060829
SPC AC 060829
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020
Valid 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to show good consensus for strong
upper ridging to build across the Southwest and into the southern
Plains on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. This upper ridging is forecast
to remain in place through the weekend. A belt of enhanced flow
aloft will arc anticyclonically along the northern periphery of this
upper ridge. This will place northwesterly flow aloft over the
northern/central Plains and mid MS Valley. This pattern is favorable
for MCS development as shortwave troughs cresting the ridge initiate
storms within the warm, moist, and unstable environment over the
northern/central Plains. However, predictability of these features
is low at this forecast range. As such, no areas will be highlighted
at this time, though severe areas will likely need to be considered
in future outlooks.
..Mosier.. 07/06/2020
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