Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 7, 2020
Updated: Tue Jul 7 08:38:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jul 10, 2020 - Sat, Jul 11, 2020
D7
Mon, Jul 13, 2020 - Tue, Jul 14, 2020
D5
Sat, Jul 11, 2020 - Sun, Jul 12, 2020
D8
Tue, Jul 14, 2020 - Wed, Jul 15, 2020
D6
Sun, Jul 12, 2020 - Mon, Jul 13, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070836
SPC AC 070836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to show good consensus for strong
upper ridging to be centered over the Southwest early D4/Friday
morning. This upper ridge is expected to gradually expand throughout
the weekend before potentially dampening somewhat early next week. A
belt of enhanced flow aloft will arc anticyclonically along the
northern periphery of this upper ridge through at least D6/Sunday.
This will place northwesterly flow aloft over the northern/central
Plains and into mid MS Valley. This pattern is favorable for MCS
development, with shortwave troughs supporting storm initiation as
they crest the ridge. The resulting storms then grow upscale under
the influence of the northwesterly flow aloft, progressing into the
the warm, moist, and unstable environment over the northern/central
Plains. Predictability of these typically subtle shortwaves is low
at this forecast range, precluding any probabilities with this
outlook. Even so, given the favorable upper pattern and ample
low-level moisture expected to be in place, severe areas will likely
need to be considered in later outlooks as predictability increases.
..Mosier.. 07/07/2020
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