Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 8, 2020
Updated: Wed Jul 8 08:37:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Jul 11, 2020 - Sun, Jul 12, 2020
D7
Tue, Jul 14, 2020 - Wed, Jul 15, 2020
D5
Sun, Jul 12, 2020 - Mon, Jul 13, 2020
D8
Wed, Jul 15, 2020 - Thu, Jul 16, 2020
D6
Mon, Jul 13, 2020 - Tue, Jul 14, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080835
SPC AC 080835
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2020
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance is in good agreement that upper ridging
will remain centered over the Southwest through at least early next
week. Belt of enhanced flow aloft will arc anticyclonically
throughout the northern periphery of this ridge, generally from the
Pacific Northwest to the mid MS Valley. This pattern is favorable
for MCS development, with shortwave troughs supporting storm
initiation as they move through the belt of stronger flow into the
High Plains. As such, some severe risk does exist, primarily across
the central Plains. However, predictability of these typically
subtle shortwaves is low at this forecast range, precluding any
probabilities with this outlook.
..Mosier.. 07/08/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
