Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 9, 2020
Updated: Thu Jul 9 08:42:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Jul 12, 2020 - Mon, Jul 13, 2020
D7
Wed, Jul 15, 2020 - Thu, Jul 16, 2020
D5
Mon, Jul 13, 2020 - Tue, Jul 14, 2020
D8
Thu, Jul 16, 2020 - Fri, Jul 17, 2020
D6
Tue, Jul 14, 2020 - Wed, Jul 15, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 090840
SPC AC 090840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020
Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging is expected to be centered over the Southwest on
D4/Sunday. This ridge is forecast to gradually shift eastward into
the southern Plains while also dampening under the influence of a
large upper cyclone expected to develop over the Canadian Prairie
Provinces.
Model guidance shows good consensus that a shortwave trough moving
through the base of this upper cyclone will move across the northern
Plains on D5/Monday. Environment over the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest is currently forecast to support severe thunderstorms, but
more run-to-run model consistency is needed before outlooking an
area.
Another shortwave trough may move through this belt of stronger
westerlies on D6/Tuesday, contributing to some severe risk from the
central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley. As with the D5/Monday
system, the latest 00Z runs show good consensus. However, previous
runs show significant variability and the predictability remains too
low to delineate an area.
..Mosier.. 07/09/2020
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