Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 10, 2020
Updated: Fri Jul 10 08:42:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Jul 13, 2020 - Tue, Jul 14, 2020
D7
Thu, Jul 16, 2020 - Fri, Jul 17, 2020
D5
Tue, Jul 14, 2020 - Wed, Jul 15, 2020
D8
Fri, Jul 17, 2020 - Sat, Jul 18, 2020
D6
Wed, Jul 15, 2020 - Thu, Jul 16, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100840
SPC AC 100840
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
Valid 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On D4/Monday, a seasonably strong shortwave trough is forecast to
move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Some
uncertainty remains regarding the quality of moisture return into
the northern Plains by Monday afternoon, but increasingly favorable
wind profiles combined with at least moderate instability will
support an organized severe thunderstorm threat across some portion
of the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. Probabilities will
likely need to be included in subsequent outlooks when details
regarding the timing of the upper wave and magnitude of moisture
return come into better focus.
For D5/Tuesday and beyond, some severe threat will likely persist
across some portion of the central/northern Plains into the upper
Midwest, as a belt of stronger mid/upper-level flow to the north of
a ridge over the southern Plains/Southeast interacts with a
persistent axis of moderate-to-strong instability. Predictability
remains too low to delineate any specific areas at this time.
..Dean.. 07/10/2020
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