Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 13, 2020
Updated: Mon Jul 13 08:34:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Jul 16, 2020 - Fri, Jul 17, 2020
D7
Sun, Jul 19, 2020 - Mon, Jul 20, 2020
D5
Fri, Jul 17, 2020 - Sat, Jul 18, 2020
D8
Mon, Jul 20, 2020 - Tue, Jul 21, 2020
D6
Sat, Jul 18, 2020 - Sun, Jul 19, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 130832
SPC AC 130832
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020
Valid 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A strong upper anticyclone will persist over the south-central U.S.
during the Day 4-8 period. Meanwhile, a progressive northern stream
will bring a series of shortwave troughs eastward across portions of
the northern Plains and the Northeast, though guidance has trended
less-amplified and further north with these systems. As a result,
any organized convection will likely remain across the northern tier
of the U.S., and be driven by smaller-scale processes not well
resolved at longer time-scales. While some severe threat appears
possible from the northern Plains eastward into the Great Lakes and
Northeast during the period, confidence is low in the timing and
coverage of these events, precluding severe probabilities at this
time.
..Leitman.. 07/13/2020
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