Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 14, 2020
Updated: Tue Jul 14 08:53:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Jul 17, 2020 - Sat, Jul 18, 2020
D7
Mon, Jul 20, 2020 - Tue, Jul 21, 2020
D5
Sat, Jul 18, 2020 - Sun, Jul 19, 2020
D8
Tue, Jul 21, 2020 - Wed, Jul 22, 2020
D6
Sun, Jul 19, 2020 - Mon, Jul 20, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140850
SPC AC 140850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Northern Plains/Great Lakes/Northeast States...
A progressive northern stream will be confined to the U.S./Canadian
border region during the Day 4-8 period. A series of shortwave
impulses/troughs will shift east from the northern Rockies to the
Great Lakes and across New England. Enhanced westerly upper flow
atop seasonally moist/unstable lower levels will support bouts of
strong to severe storms during this time, with the most favorable
severe potential apparent from Day 4/Fri through Day 6/Sun. However,
confidence is low concerning timing of various mesoscale features
and influences from prior day convection/decaying MCSs. Given these
uncertainties, confidence is too low to introduce 15% severe
probabilities at this time, though this may become necessary in
subsequent outlooks.
..Leitman.. 07/14/2020
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