Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 15, 2020
Updated: Wed Jul 15 08:48:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Jul 18, 2020 - Sun, Jul 19, 2020
D7
Tue, Jul 21, 2020 - Wed, Jul 22, 2020
D5
Sun, Jul 19, 2020 - Mon, Jul 20, 2020
D8
Wed, Jul 22, 2020 - Thu, Jul 23, 2020
D6
Mon, Jul 20, 2020 - Tue, Jul 21, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150846
SPC AC 150846
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
An active pattern will continue across parts of the northern/central
Plains to the Great Lakes during the Day 4-8 period. A broad upper
trough is forecast to stretch from the northern Rockies to the
Northeast for much of the forecast period, maintaining enhanced
westerly mid/upper level flow atop a seasonally moist and unstable
air mass. Shortwave impulses migrating through the upper trough will
help focus periods of strong to severe storms across the
north-central to northeast U.S. However, confidence is too low to
include 15% or greater severe probabilities at this time. This is
mainly due to timing differences among various guidance of shortwave
impulses, as well as each day's severe threat being dependent on the
prior day's convection and associated mesoscale feature locations.
Nevertheless, the pattern continues to look active for parts of the
northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes vicinity and possibly
the Northeast. Severe probabilities will likely be needed in
subsequent outlooks as finer-scale details become better resolved
with time.
..Leitman.. 07/15/2020
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