Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 16, 2020
Updated: Thu Jul 16 08:57:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Jul 19, 2020 - Mon, Jul 20, 2020
D7
Wed, Jul 22, 2020 - Thu, Jul 23, 2020
D5
Mon, Jul 20, 2020 - Tue, Jul 21, 2020
D8
Thu, Jul 23, 2020 - Fri, Jul 24, 2020
D6
Tue, Jul 21, 2020 - Wed, Jul 22, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160855
SPC AC 160855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2020
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A progressive northern stream will continue through the Day 4-8
period. The overall severe threat early in the period will likely be
somewhat diminished over the Great Lakes vicinity due to prior days
convection and potential for multiple MCSs to impact the broader
Midwest region. The mean trough in place across the north-central
U.S. will weaken somewhat early in the work week. However, by the
end of the period, around Day 7/Wed, guidance suggests another
compact shortwave impulse will migrate through the larger-scale
trough from the northern High Plains toward the Great Lakes once
again. This could result in an increasing severe threat, but
uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this
time.
..Leitman.. 07/16/2020
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