Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 22, 2020
Updated: Wed Jul 22 08:34:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Jul 25, 2020 - Sun, Jul 26, 2020
D7
Tue, Jul 28, 2020 - Wed, Jul 29, 2020
D5
Sun, Jul 26, 2020 - Mon, Jul 27, 2020
D8
Wed, Jul 29, 2020 - Thu, Jul 30, 2020
D6
Mon, Jul 27, 2020 - Tue, Jul 28, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220832
SPC AC 220832
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
As an upper trough progresses across western/central Canada and the
adjacent northern tier of the CONUS, at least some severe threat may
continue across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on
Day 4/Saturday. This upper trough is forecast to erode an upper
ridge centered over the MS Valley and Ontario this upcoming weekend
into early next week. Although details remain somewhat unclear
regrading the evolution of the upper trough, medium-range guidance
generally suggests that it will acquire a positive tilt and
overspread much of the northeastern quarter of the CONUS through the
middle of next week. Accordingly, a severe threat may exist from
parts of the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes into
the central Plains, Midwest, OH Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic
from Day 5/Sunday into early next week in association with the
advancing upper trough and a related surface cold front. Too much
uncertainty exists to include 15% severe probabilities for any day.
..Gleason.. 07/22/2020
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