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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 23, 2020
Updated: Thu Jul 23 08:47:02 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 23, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 23, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 23, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 23, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 23, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Jul 23, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Jul 26, 2020 - Mon, Jul 27, 2020 D7Wed, Jul 29, 2020 - Thu, Jul 30, 2020
D5Mon, Jul 27, 2020 - Tue, Jul 28, 2020 D8Thu, Jul 30, 2020 - Fri, Jul 31, 2020
D6Tue, Jul 28, 2020 - Wed, Jul 29, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230845
   SPC AC 230845

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

   Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An upper trough/low initially over central Canada on Day 4/Sunday is
   forecast to move into eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS by
   the middle of next week. A surface cold front is also expected to
   gradually move east-southeastward from the Upper Midwest and central
   Plains to the southern Plains, mid MS Valley, and Northeast in the
   same time frame. Potentially organized/severe convection appears
   possible along/ahead of this cold front from Day 4/Sunday into at
   least early next week across a broad swath of the central/eastern
   CONUS. This severe potential should gradually spread
   east-southeastward each day with the front. However, too much
   uncertainty exists in the placement of the front, the degree of
   instability present ahead of the front each day, and the
   timing/amplitude of the upper trough to include any 15% severe
   probabilities at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 07/23/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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