Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 25, 2020
Updated: Sat Jul 25 08:33:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Jul 28, 2020 - Wed, Jul 29, 2020
D7
Fri, Jul 31, 2020 - Sat, Aug 01, 2020
D5
Wed, Jul 29, 2020 - Thu, Jul 30, 2020
D8
Sat, Aug 01, 2020 - Sun, Aug 02, 2020
D6
Thu, Jul 30, 2020 - Fri, Jul 31, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250831
SPC AC 250831
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models suggest that a broad mid-level low, initially
centered over Ontario, will gradually undergo considerable
deformation, with its remnants slowly shifting eastward into and
across the northern Atlantic Seaboard through the middle to latter
portion of next week. In its wake, general troughiness is forecast
to prevail east of the Rockies, within branching westerlies
downstream of increasingly prominent mid-level ridging centered
across the Southwest. In association with this regime, it appears
that some combination of seasonably mild low-level temperatures,
weak mid-level lapse rates and modest to weak vertical shear will
generally result in relatively low severe thunderstorm potential.
..Kerr.. 07/25/2020
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