Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 26, 2020
Updated: Sun Jul 26 08:47:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Jul 29, 2020 - Thu, Jul 30, 2020
D7
Sat, Aug 01, 2020 - Sun, Aug 02, 2020
D5
Thu, Jul 30, 2020 - Fri, Jul 31, 2020
D8
Sun, Aug 02, 2020 - Mon, Aug 03, 2020
D6
Fri, Jul 31, 2020 - Sat, Aug 01, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260845
SPC AC 260845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A broad mid-level low, initially over Ontario/Quebec at mid week,
probably will remain progressive, but may undergo considerable
deformation as it is forced eastward across the north Atlantic Coast
by early next weekend. In its wake, general troughiness appears
likely to persist within branching westerlies east of the Rockies,
downstream of increasingly prominent mid-level ridging over the
Intermountain West and Rockies.
Late this coming work week through next weekend, the remnants of a
significant northeastern Pacific mid-level low may be forced inland,
around the crest of the ridging into the Canadian Prairies. As this
occurs, the nose of a broad plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air
may advect northeastward into portions of the northern Great Plains
by late next weekend. It might not be out of the question that
large-scale ascent, increasing shear and destabilization on the
leading edge of this air mass could provide a potential focus for
evolving strong to severe storm clusters across parts of Montana
into the Dakotas. However, at this point, the general severe
weather threat still appears best categorized as "low."
..Kerr.. 07/26/2020
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