Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 31, 2020
Updated: Fri Jul 31 08:41:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Aug 03, 2020 - Tue, Aug 04, 2020
D7
Thu, Aug 06, 2020 - Fri, Aug 07, 2020
D5
Tue, Aug 04, 2020 - Wed, Aug 05, 2020
D8
Fri, Aug 07, 2020 - Sat, Aug 08, 2020
D6
Wed, Aug 05, 2020 - Thu, Aug 06, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 310839
SPC AC 310839
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020
Valid 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The persistent upper trough in the East and ridge in the West should
remain in place into early next week, though some deamplification of
the pattern is indicated by most guidance as the week goes on. T.C.
Isaias is forecast to accelerate northeastward along the Eastern
Seaboard sometime during the D4/Monday-D5/Tuesday time frame.
...Carolinas into the Northeast...
Some severe threat may persist into northern New England on
D4/Monday, in conjunction with a departing cyclone, as moderate
low/mid-level flow overspreads rich low-level moisture. The timing
of this feature remains uncertain, but probabilities may eventually
be needed for this scenario if a slower solution ends up verifying.
Any tornado threat associated with T.C. Isaias will be contingent on
a very near approach or landfall somewhere along the East Coast.
Based on the current NHC forecast track, this is most likely to
occur along the NC coast sometime late Monday into Tuesday morning,
but considerable uncertainty remains at this forecast range.
...Plains...
Persistent midlevel northwesterly flow will likely result in some
severe threat across portions of the Plains through at least
midweek, though the magnitude of the threat should remain relatively
limited. Any risk early in the week would likely be confined to
areas near the CO Front Range and adjacent High Plains, but
gradually returning low-level moisture may eventually result in an
increasing threat of nocturnal MCS activity later in the week across
a broader region of the Plains.
..Dean.. 07/31/2020
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