Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 1, 2020
Updated: Sat Aug 1 08:18:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Aug 04, 2020 - Wed, Aug 05, 2020
D7
Fri, Aug 07, 2020 - Sat, Aug 08, 2020
D5
Wed, Aug 05, 2020 - Thu, Aug 06, 2020
D8
Sat, Aug 08, 2020 - Sun, Aug 09, 2020
D6
Thu, Aug 06, 2020 - Fri, Aug 07, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010815
SPC AC 010815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Sat Aug 01 2020
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The primary severe threats in the extended range will continue to be
associated with the eastern trough and T.C. Isaias on D4/Tuesday,
and with persistent northwesterly flow across portions of the Plains
for much of the week. Predictability remains much too low to
delineate any 15% areas associated with either of these regimes.
...D4/Tuesday: Carolinas into New England...
If the track of Isaias is far enough west, then some tornado threat
may evolve on Tuesday from the Mid Atlantic coast into southern New
England, associated directly with the tropical cyclone. Otherwise,
some organized convection will be possible in advance of Isaias, as
tropical moisture streams northward into a region of moderate
low/mid-level southwesterly flow. Depending on the magnitude of
instability that can develop, locally damaging wind or a brief
tornado or two would be possible within this regime, though
uncertainty remains quite high at this time.
...Plains...
Any severe threat on D4/Tuesday in this region would probably again
be confined to the High Plains and adjacent higher terrain, though
midlevel flow will likely become more westerly (resulting in weaker
deep-layer shear) as the upper ridge moves slowly eastward. Later in
the week, the northwesterly flow regime may shift eastward into a
larger portion of the Great Plains, where low-level moisture and
instability will be gradually increasing with time, but uncertainty
regarding any specific threats remains quite high through the week.
..Dean.. 08/01/2020
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