Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 2, 2020
Updated: Sun Aug 2 08:20:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Aug 05, 2020 - Thu, Aug 06, 2020
D7
Sat, Aug 08, 2020 - Sun, Aug 09, 2020
D5
Thu, Aug 06, 2020 - Fri, Aug 07, 2020
D8
Sun, Aug 09, 2020 - Mon, Aug 10, 2020
D6
Fri, Aug 07, 2020 - Sat, Aug 08, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020818
SPC AC 020818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2020
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
T.C. Isaias may still be affecting portions of New England early on
D4/Wednesday, though it should quickly move into the Canadian
Maritimes as the primary upper trough begins to move northeastward
away from the eastern CONUS. The persistent upper ridge over the
West should continue to deamplify and shift slowly eastward,
becoming centered over the southern Plains by the weekend.
Aside from any lingering threat associated with Isaias and the
departing upper trough over New England on D4/Wednesday, any
organized severe threat during the extended range period will likely
be tied to a persistent northwesterly flow regime over the
Plains/Midwest through the end of the week, or perhaps with
progressive northern-stream shortwave troughs affecting the northern
Plains by the weekend. Predictability remains much too low to
delineate 15% areas for any specific threat at this time.
..Dean.. 08/02/2020
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