Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 14, 2020
Updated: Fri Aug 14 08:38:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Aug 17, 2020 - Tue, Aug 18, 2020
D7
Thu, Aug 20, 2020 - Fri, Aug 21, 2020
D5
Tue, Aug 18, 2020 - Wed, Aug 19, 2020
D8
Fri, Aug 21, 2020 - Sat, Aug 22, 2020
D6
Wed, Aug 19, 2020 - Thu, Aug 20, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140836
SPC AC 140836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2020
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in reasonable large-scale agreement through
the period, with respect to the synoptic flow field aloft across the
CONUS. In general, broad western U.S. ridging will be maintained,
while troughing persists over the eastern states.
Within this pattern, any more substantial severe risk would likely
be confined to a zone from the northern Plains vicinity
southeastward across the upper Midwest, beneath an enhanced belt of
northwesterly flow aloft on the northeastern periphery of the
western ridge. As small-scale disturbances embedded within the
northwesterly flow field traverse the region, daily episodes of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms are expected.
With this said, narrowing down more specific regions -- and specific
days -- where risk may be greater, cannot be accomplished with
sufficient confidence due to the small-scale nature of the forcing
mechanisms. Therefore, low predictability precludes delineation of
any risk areas through the medium-range period.
..Goss.. 08/14/2020
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