Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 15, 2020
Updated: Sat Aug 15 08:57:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Aug 18, 2020 - Wed, Aug 19, 2020
D7
Fri, Aug 21, 2020 - Sat, Aug 22, 2020
D5
Wed, Aug 19, 2020 - Thu, Aug 20, 2020
D8
Sat, Aug 22, 2020 - Sun, Aug 23, 2020
D6
Thu, Aug 20, 2020 - Fri, Aug 21, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 150855
SPC AC 150855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field is forecast over the
U.S. during the medium range, with models generally in reasonable
large-scale agreement. Both the persistent western ridge, and
eastern trough, are expected to diminish in intensity, permitting a
more west-to-east band of flow to evolve over the northern quarter
of the CONUS with time.
Given the deamplifying flow field expected, and no major upper
features apparent at least through the first several days of the
period, any severe risk will likely be limited areally, and
associated with smaller scale disturbances aloft/more subtle surface
features. As such, lack of predictability precludes any areal
delineations of severe potential at this time.
..Goss.. 08/15/2020
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