Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 16, 2020
Updated: Sun Aug 16 08:57:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Aug 19, 2020 - Thu, Aug 20, 2020
D7
Sat, Aug 22, 2020 - Sun, Aug 23, 2020
D5
Thu, Aug 20, 2020 - Fri, Aug 21, 2020
D8
Sun, Aug 23, 2020 - Mon, Aug 24, 2020
D6
Fri, Aug 21, 2020 - Sat, Aug 22, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160855
SPC AC 160855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models remain in reasonable large-scale agreement,
maintaining the general western ridge/eastern trough configuration,
though depicting deamplification of the overall pattern with time.
No obvious, larger-scale features aloft are indicated, with
smaller-scale cyclonic disturbances moving through northwesterly
flow across the central third of the U.S. likely to remain the
primary influencers with respect to daily convective
activity/possible severe risk. And given a lack of model-to-model
consistency with respect to location/timing of these smaller-scale
disturbances, uncertainty prevails -- again precluding any areal
highlights at this time.
..Goss.. 08/16/2020
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