Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 20, 2020
Updated: Thu Aug 20 08:38:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Aug 23, 2020 - Mon, Aug 24, 2020
D7
Wed, Aug 26, 2020 - Thu, Aug 27, 2020
D5
Mon, Aug 24, 2020 - Tue, Aug 25, 2020
D8
Thu, Aug 27, 2020 - Fri, Aug 28, 2020
D6
Tue, Aug 25, 2020 - Wed, Aug 26, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 200836
SPC AC 200836
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2020
Valid 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Latest runs of the medium-range models continue to show reasonable
large-scale agreement, with a continued depiction of a general trend
toward less amplified/more zonal flow over the CONUS. However,
smaller-scale features continue to be handled differently in terms
of magnitude and progression. Thus, given that these smaller-scale
features will remain the primary modulators of severe potential
during the period, no areal delineations of potentially greater
severe risk can be confidently highlighted through the period.
There remains some hint in the models that an increase in convection
-- and potentially some severe potential -- may increase on or
around Day 6 over the north central U.S., but uncertainty remains
rather substantial with respect to any details. This uncertainty
increases through the latter stages of the period; aside from this,
no other obvious/potentially more organized severe weather episodes
are apparent at this time.
..Goss.. 08/20/2020
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