Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 24, 2020
Updated: Mon Aug 24 09:00:08 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Thu, Aug 27, 2020 - Fri, Aug 28, 2020
D7
Sun, Aug 30, 2020 - Mon, Aug 31, 2020
D5
Fri, Aug 28, 2020 - Sat, Aug 29, 2020
D8
Mon, Aug 31, 2020 - Tue, Sep 01, 2020
D6
Sat, Aug 29, 2020 - Sun, Aug 30, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240858
SPC AC 240858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020
Valid 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The convective forecast early in the medium-range period is being
complicated by the inland evolution of remnant tropical system
Laura, which is progged at this time to move across the lower
Mississippi Valley area Day 4/Thursday, before turning eastward and
crossing the Kentucky/Tennessee area Day 5/Friday. While some
inland tornado risk will likely accompany Laura, overall uncertainty
precludes inclusion of a 15% probability area at this time.
While some convective/severe risk could evolve across the Upper
Great Lakes Day 5 Friday, models differ with the intensity/amplitude
of the associated upper system.
Day 6/Saturday, models loosely agree that a stronger short-wave
trough crossing the Canadian Rockies will begin to dig/amplify
southeastward with time, affecting the northern Intermountain region
and then into the Plains Day 7. While it appears likely that a
substantial cold front will accompany this system, along with
associated convective/severe potential, details become increasingly
uncertain as model solutions diverge steadily through the end of the
period. As such, no risk areas will be introduced at this time,
through the period.
..Goss.. 08/24/2020
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