New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Aug 28, 2020 - Sat, Aug 29, 2020
D7
Mon, Aug 31, 2020 - Tue, Sep 01, 2020
D5
Sat, Aug 29, 2020 - Sun, Aug 30, 2020
D8
Tue, Sep 01, 2020 - Wed, Sep 02, 2020
D6
Sun, Aug 30, 2020 - Mon, Aug 31, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 250852
SPC AC 250852
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Friday (Day 4) A more or less east-west baroclinic zone will extend
through the Great Lakes and southern portions of the Northeast
States. Farther upstream, a cold front will move from the upper MS
Valley southeast into the Great Lakes and Midwest regions. This area
will remain within belt of moderate flow aloft. Storms are expected
to remain active/redevelop along these boundaries, and as the warm
sector destabilizes, potential will exist for storms to organize and
become severe during the afternoon and into the evening.
A few tornadoes will remain possible over the lower MS into the TN
Valley regions in association with the remnants of Laura. However,
too much uncertainty exists at this time to introduce severe
probabilities.
Saturday (Day 5) A cold front should extend from a portion of the
Northeast States southwest into the OH Valley, accompanying an
amplifying northern-stream trough. Storms will likely be ongoing
along and just ahead of the front, and potential will exist for
additional activity to develop and intensify from the Northeast U.S.
into the Middle Atlantic as the downstream boundary layer
destabilizes. Vertical shear will be sufficient for organized storms
with damaging wind the main threat.
Remnants of Laura will likely continue through the TN and OH Valley
regions, likely becoming absorbed within belt of faster westerlies.
Some threat for a few tornadoes may persist with this feature, but
predictability remains too low to introduce probabilities at this
time.
..Dial.. 08/25/2020
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