Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 26, 2020
Updated: Wed Aug 26 08:40:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
88,740
53,239,008
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Pittsburgh, PA...
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sat, Aug 29, 2020 - Sun, Aug 30, 2020
D7
Tue, Sep 01, 2020 - Wed, Sep 02, 2020
D5
Sun, Aug 30, 2020 - Mon, Aug 31, 2020
D8
Wed, Sep 02, 2020 - Thu, Sep 03, 2020
D6
Mon, Aug 31, 2020 - Tue, Sep 01, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260838
SPC AC 260838
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020
Valid 291200Z - 031200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Day 4 (Saturday) A cold front accompanying a progressive
northern-stream trough will advance southeast through the OH Valley
and Northeast States, reaching the Middle Atlantic during the
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and ahead
of the front. Additional storms will likely develop as the warm
sector destabilizes during the afternoon, posing a threat for mainly
damaging wind.
Farther south, the remnants of Laura should transition to more of a
hybrid tropical/mid-latitude system as it becomes absorbed within
the westerlies. The kinematic environment should remain favorable
for a few tornadoes and possibly locally strong to damaging wind
gusts as it crosses the southern Appalachians and continues through
the Carolinas. Since this feature will be in a transition stage,
uncertainty regarding strength/track persists at this time, but
severe probabilities will likely be introduced in the next day 3
update.
Day 5 (Sunday) Limited moisture return will occur through the
central and northern Plains in advance of the next northern-stream
shortwave trough and its attendant cold front. However, at this time
too much uncertainty exists regarding degree of destabilization and
extent of moisture return to introduce a categorical outlook.
..Dial.. 08/26/2020
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