Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 27, 2020
Updated: Thu Aug 27 08:58:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Aug 30, 2020 - Mon, Aug 31, 2020
D7
Wed, Sep 02, 2020 - Thu, Sep 03, 2020
D5
Mon, Aug 31, 2020 - Tue, Sep 01, 2020
D8
Thu, Sep 03, 2020 - Fri, Sep 04, 2020
D6
Tue, Sep 01, 2020 - Wed, Sep 02, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270856
SPC AC 270856
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Day 4 (Sunday) Modest low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 50s
to around 60 F will return through the northern Plains in a narrow
corridor ahead of the next progressive shortwave trough and its
attendant cold front. While some threat for severe weather will
accompany this system, the limited moisture return lowers overall
confidence in a more robust severe threat.
Day 5 (Monday) The shortwave trough and its attendant cold front
will continue through the upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes
region. Moisture and instability will remain limited with this
system and lowers confidence in a robust severe threat. Farther
south across KS and OK into the middle to lower MS valley, richer
low-level moisture and strong instability will reside in vicinity of
an east-west oriented boundary. Storms may develop along this
boundary and along southwestern extension of the cold front that
will merge with the stalled front. Some severe weather is probable
due to a likely favorable thermodynamic environment. However this
region will reside south of stronger winds aloft, and confidence is
not high enough to introduce probabilities for an organized severe
threat at this time.
Days 6-8 (Tuesday-Thursday) Models have not demonstrated good
consistency regarding evolution of overall pattern, suggesting
predictability remains low.
..Dial.. 08/27/2020
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
