Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 28, 2020
Updated: Fri Aug 28 08:55:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Aug 31, 2020 - Tue, Sep 01, 2020
D7
Thu, Sep 03, 2020 - Fri, Sep 04, 2020
D5
Tue, Sep 01, 2020 - Wed, Sep 02, 2020
D8
Fri, Sep 04, 2020 - Sat, Sep 05, 2020
D6
Wed, Sep 02, 2020 - Thu, Sep 03, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280853
SPC AC 280853
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020
Valid 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Day 4 (Monday) Quasi-zonal pattern initially in place on day 4 will
trend toward amplification as a positive-tilt shortwave trough digs
toward the central Rockies. An unstable warm sector will reside over
a portion of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley south of
primary baroclinic zone, and thunderstorms may continue developing
along this boundary, some of which could be severe. However, this
region will reside south of the stronger winds aloft which lowers
confidence in an organized severe threat.
Day 5 (Tuesday) Thunderstorms will probably be ongoing north of the
front across the central Plains. Potential will exist for the warm
sector to become moderately unstable across OK into northern TX and
the lower MS Valley. Additional storms may develop along a
southeast-advancing cold front attending the upper trough. While
some severe weather may accompany this setup, overall predictability
remains low at this time.
Beyond day 5 predictability is very low with increasing ensemble
spreads regarding evolution of upper trough as it continues
eastward. Some solutions suggest it may cutoff over the central
Plains, while others remain more progressive.
..Dial.. 08/28/2020
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