Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 30, 2020
Updated: Sun Aug 30 08:46:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Wed, Sep 02, 2020 - Thu, Sep 03, 2020
D7
Sat, Sep 05, 2020 - Sun, Sep 06, 2020
D5
Thu, Sep 03, 2020 - Fri, Sep 04, 2020
D8
Sun, Sep 06, 2020 - Mon, Sep 07, 2020
D6
Fri, Sep 04, 2020 - Sat, Sep 05, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 300844
SPC AC 300844
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020
Valid 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
The medium-range models move an upper-level trough eastward from the
southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states on Wednesday and
Thursday. A moist and unstable airmass appears likely to be in place
across parts of the southern Plains and southeastern U.S.
Thunderstorms that develop in areas that have the greatest
destabilization could have an isolated severe threat both Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday afternoon. But uncertainty is substantial
concerning where these areas with severe potential will develop.
...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/day 8...
On Friday, the models keep a moist and unstable airmass in place
from the southern Plains into the Southeast. The moist airmass is
forecast to advect quickly northward into the Upper Midwest on
Saturday. West-southwest mid-level flow across the north-central
U.S. on Saturday is forecast to transition to westerly on Sunday as
an upper-level trough quickly approaches. Thunderstorms will be
possible along the instability corridor during the afternoon and
evening on both Saturday and Sunday. But the greater severe threat
would be on Sunday as the upper-level trough moves across the
north-central U.S. Severe thunderstorms would be possible from parts
of the upper Mississippi Valley eastward into the western Great
Lakes. Although the solutions are somewhat in agreement on this
scenario, uncertainty is still substantial concerning the
distribution of instability and timing of the upper-level trough.
..Broyles.. 08/30/2020
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