Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 1, 2020
Updated: Tue Sep 1 08:20:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Fri, Sep 04, 2020 - Sat, Sep 05, 2020
D7
Mon, Sep 07, 2020 - Tue, Sep 08, 2020
D5
Sat, Sep 05, 2020 - Sun, Sep 06, 2020
D8
Tue, Sep 08, 2020 - Wed, Sep 09, 2020
D6
Sun, Sep 06, 2020 - Mon, Sep 07, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010817
SPC AC 010817
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2020
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The extended range will be characterized by a large-scale trough
over the Great Lakes/East and a ridge over the Desert
Southwest/Great Basin according to recent model guidance.
Cooler/drier air leading to a more tranquil pattern appears likely
for much of the area east of the Rockies. As a result, the
potential for organized severe thunderstorms will be limited through
the weekend into early next week.
..Smith.. 09/01/2020
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