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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 2, 2020
Updated: Wed Sep 2 08:48:02 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 2, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 2, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 2, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 2, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 2, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 2, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Sep 05, 2020 - Sun, Sep 06, 2020 D7Tue, Sep 08, 2020 - Wed, Sep 09, 2020
D5Sun, Sep 06, 2020 - Mon, Sep 07, 2020 D8Wed, Sep 09, 2020 - Thu, Sep 10, 2020
D6Mon, Sep 07, 2020 - Tue, Sep 08, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 020846
   SPC AC 020846

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models continue to show surface high pressure centered
   over the MS Valley on Saturday (day 4) as a larger-scale mid-level
   trough over the Great Lakes/Northeast departs.  Southerly low-level
   flow will begin to advect moisture northward through the central
   Great Plains on Saturday but the potential for 15-percent severe
   probabilities appears low.  By Sunday (day 5), a lead disturbance
   embedded within west-northwest flow over the Corn Belt may lead to
   some severe risk.  Uncertainty precludes a highlight for parts of
   IA/IL.  Model variability increases substantially by early next week
   in the evolution of a larger-scale trough for parts of the
   Rockies/central U.S.

   ..Smith.. 09/02/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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