Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left     navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 3, 2020
Updated: Thu Sep 3 07:58:02 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 3, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 3, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 3, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 3, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 3, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 3, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Sep 06, 2020 - Mon, Sep 07, 2020 D7Wed, Sep 09, 2020 - Thu, Sep 10, 2020
D5Mon, Sep 07, 2020 - Tue, Sep 08, 2020 D8Thu, Sep 10, 2020 - Fri, Sep 11, 2020
D6Tue, Sep 08, 2020 - Wed, Sep 09, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 030756
   SPC AC 030756

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020

   Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   The suite of medium-range model guidance is converging towards a
   solution featuring a belt of strong westerly flow across the Dakotas
   into the MS Valley on Sunday /day 4/ as a larger-scale trough begins
   to amplify over the northern High Plains by Monday.  Appreciable
   uncertainty exists for the possibility of severe thunderstorms for
   parts of the western Great Lakes on Sunday.  Model spread becomes
   relatively large by Monday and especially late in the extended
   period with models differing substantially in the evolution of the
   large-scale trough over the central U.S. between a more progressive
   vs. closed-low scenario.

   ..Smith.. 09/03/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us
NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 01, 1970		 Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary 		Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities