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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 4, 2020
Updated: Fri Sep 4 08:30:03 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 4, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 4, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 4, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 4, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 4, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 4, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Sep 07, 2020 - Tue, Sep 08, 2020 D7Thu, Sep 10, 2020 - Fri, Sep 11, 2020
D5Tue, Sep 08, 2020 - Wed, Sep 09, 2020 D8Fri, Sep 11, 2020 - Sat, Sep 12, 2020
D6Wed, Sep 09, 2020 - Thu, Sep 10, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 040828
   SPC AC 040828

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0328 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2020

   Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range model output continues to show the development of a
   large-scale upper trough over the Rockies early in the extended
   period.  Models are converging towards a scenario of a mid-level low
   evolving from the trough and slowly migrating eastward across the
   central U.S. late in the work week.  Severe thunderstorm potential
   will likely focus during the early part of the week before a cold
   front sweeps southward through much of the central U.S. 
   Predictability concerns for thunderstorm placement and severity are
   quite uncertain at this time from the southwest Great Lakes
   southwestward into the central Great Plains.

   ..Smith.. 09/04/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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