Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 5, 2020
Updated: Sat Sep 5 08:43:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Sep 08, 2020 - Wed, Sep 09, 2020
D7
Fri, Sep 11, 2020 - Sat, Sep 12, 2020
D5
Wed, Sep 09, 2020 - Thu, Sep 10, 2020
D8
Sat, Sep 12, 2020 - Sun, Sep 13, 2020
D6
Thu, Sep 10, 2020 - Fri, Sep 11, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050841
SPC AC 050841
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The potential for severe thunderstorms during the extended range
will likely focus on Tuesday (day 4) with decreasing potential
expected thereafter. A large-scale trough over the central Rockies
will amplify as it moves into the central High Plains. A strong
cold front will surge southward through the High Plains. A threat
for organized strong to severe thunderstorms could occur but the
anafrontal character of the cold front and placement of the boundary
preclude the introduction of a severe highlight over parts of the
lower MO Valley into the southern Plains. By the mid to late part
of the week, a mid-level low will probably evolve over the central
U.S. with only slight eastward progression expected.
..Smith.. 09/05/2020
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