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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 8, 2020
Updated: Tue Sep 8 07:53:02 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 8, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 8, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 8, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 8, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 8, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 8, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Fri, Sep 11, 2020 - Sat, Sep 12, 2020 D7Mon, Sep 14, 2020 - Tue, Sep 15, 2020
D5Sat, Sep 12, 2020 - Sun, Sep 13, 2020 D8Tue, Sep 15, 2020 - Wed, Sep 16, 2020
D6Sun, Sep 13, 2020 - Mon, Sep 14, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 080751
   SPC AC 080751

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 AM CDT Tue Sep 08 2020

   Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models show an eastward-migrating closed low evolving
   into an open trough during the Friday to Saturday timeframe from the
   north-central U.S. into the western Great Lakes.  By Sunday, models
   are beginning to show a signal for the development of a surface low
   with the mid-level trough.  A moist airmass ahead of the mid-level
   trough would at least favor the potential for thunderstorms across
   the Northeast.  Medium-range model spread is sufficiently large by
   this period to warrant a predictability-too-low highlight.  By early
   next week, a progressive/low-amplitude flow regime is expected with
   the belt of stronger flow relegated to the northern tier of states.

   ..Smith.. 09/08/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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