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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 10, 2020
Updated: Thu Sep 10 08:51:03 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 10, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 10, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 10, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 10, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 10, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 10, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sun, Sep 13, 2020 - Mon, Sep 14, 2020 D7Wed, Sep 16, 2020 - Thu, Sep 17, 2020
D5Mon, Sep 14, 2020 - Tue, Sep 15, 2020 D8Thu, Sep 17, 2020 - Fri, Sep 18, 2020
D6Tue, Sep 15, 2020 - Wed, Sep 16, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 100849
   SPC AC 100849

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020

   Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range model output indicates a mid-level trough will move
   across the lower Great Lakes/New England on Sunday (day 4).  It
   seems plausible a low-level moist plume will extend northward into
   the Northeast ahead of the disturbance.  However, considerable
   uncertainty remains regarding the details of
   destabilization---precluding a severe highlight.

   Models show a progressive upper-air pattern with stronger mid-level
   flow relegated to the northern tier of states through the early part
   of the work week.  Towards the end of the extended period,
   increasing model variability renders low confidence on the evolution
   of a potential mid-level trough over the north-central U.S.

   ..Smith.. 09/10/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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