Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 18, 2020
Updated: Fri Sep 18 08:50:03 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Mon, Sep 21, 2020 - Tue, Sep 22, 2020
D7
Thu, Sep 24, 2020 - Fri, Sep 25, 2020
D5
Tue, Sep 22, 2020 - Wed, Sep 23, 2020
D8
Fri, Sep 25, 2020 - Sat, Sep 26, 2020
D6
Wed, Sep 23, 2020 - Thu, Sep 24, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180848
SPC AC 180848
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020
Valid 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Deterministic medium-range guidance generally suggests that a
tropical cyclone over the western Gulf of Mexico should move slowly
along/near the TX Coast from Day 4/Monday through the middle of next
week, although predictability remains low at this extended time
frame. Refer to the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center regarding the track and intensity of this system. At this
point, the potential for even weak destabilization to occur inland
is highly uncertain. Accordingly, the severe potential associated
with this tropical cyclone appears fairly low at this time, but some
chance cannot be ruled out along parts of the TX Coast into the
Southeast from Day 5/Tuesday onward. Otherwise, surface high
pressure is forecast to remain over much of the eastern CONUS next
week. This anticyclone, coupled with the tropical system over the
western Gulf of Mexico, is expected to limit substantial low-level
moisture return for most of the CONUS away from the Gulf Coast,
along with appreciable severe potential.
..Gleason.. 09/18/2020
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