Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 19, 2020
Updated: Sat Sep 19 08:47:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Sep 22, 2020 - Wed, Sep 23, 2020
D7
Fri, Sep 25, 2020 - Sat, Sep 26, 2020
D5
Wed, Sep 23, 2020 - Thu, Sep 24, 2020
D8
Sat, Sep 26, 2020 - Sun, Sep 27, 2020
D6
Thu, Sep 24, 2020 - Fri, Sep 25, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190845
SPC AC 190845
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Depending on the track of Tropical Cyclone Beta, there may be a
continued low-end severe risk along parts of the middle/upper TX
Coast into LA and perhaps the lower MS Valley from Day 4/Tuesday
through Day 6/Thursday. However, far too much uncertainty exists
regarding Beta's location at this extended time frame to include any
severe probabilities. Otherwise, severe potential across the
remainder of the CONUS will likely remain limited through Day
6/Thursday, as more substantial low-level moisture should be
confined to parts of coastal TX/LA and the lower MS Valley. By the
end of next week, large differences are apparent in guidance
regarding the synoptic-scale upper pattern across the CONUS. Some
potential for greater low-level moisture return appears possible
across parts of the MS Valley, Upper Midwest, and vicinity by next
Saturday, but predictability remains low.
..Gleason.. 09/19/2020
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