Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 24, 2020
Updated: Thu Sep 24 08:52:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Sun, Sep 27, 2020 - Mon, Sep 28, 2020
D7
Wed, Sep 30, 2020 - Thu, Oct 01, 2020
D5
Mon, Sep 28, 2020 - Tue, Sep 29, 2020
D8
Thu, Oct 01, 2020 - Fri, Oct 02, 2020
D6
Tue, Sep 29, 2020 - Wed, Sep 30, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 240850
SPC AC 240850
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale upper troughing over the central CONUS is forecast to
amplify further on Day 4/Sunday. Large differences in medium-range
guidance emerge by early next week regarding the eastward
progression of this upper trough. If a slower solution verifies,
then organized severe thunderstorms would be possible along/ahead of
a cold front across parts of the southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday,
continuing into portions of the lower MS Valley, Southeast, and
possibly the Mid-Atlantic through at least Day 6/Tuesday. However,
if a faster eastward movement to the upper trough occurs, then
severe potential across these regions should be much less. Given
this uncertainty, no severe probabilities appear warranted through
the extended forecast period.
..Gleason.. 09/24/2020
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