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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 25, 2020
Updated: Fri Sep 25 07:06:04 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 25, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 25, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 25, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 25, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 25, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 25, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Mon, Sep 28, 2020 - Tue, Sep 29, 2020 D7Thu, Oct 01, 2020 - Fri, Oct 02, 2020
D5Tue, Sep 29, 2020 - Wed, Sep 30, 2020 D8Fri, Oct 02, 2020 - Sat, Oct 03, 2020
D6Wed, Sep 30, 2020 - Thu, Oct 01, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250703
   SPC AC 250703

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

   Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that upper
   troughing will extend from Ontario southwestward into the central
   Rockies early D4/Monday. Thereafter, model solutions quickly
   diverge, showing both run-to-run variability as well as
   model-to-model inconsistencies. Strong mid-level flow will accompany
   this system, so the development of a few severe thunderstorms
   appears possible once the upper trough interacts with the more moist
   airmass across the eastern CONUS. However, this potential may be
   mitigated by cloud cover and resulting limiting heating and
   destabilization. Overall, predictability remains too low for much
   forecast confidence at this range, but portions of the eastern CONUS
   may eventually merit severe probabilities later in the forecast
   cycle.

   ..Mosier.. 09/25/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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