Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 26, 2020
Updated: Sat Sep 26 07:36:02 UTC 2020
Day 4 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4
Tue, Sep 29, 2020 - Wed, Sep 30, 2020
D7
Fri, Oct 02, 2020 - Sat, Oct 03, 2020
D5
Wed, Sep 30, 2020 - Thu, Oct 01, 2020
D8
Sat, Oct 03, 2020 - Sun, Oct 04, 2020
D6
Thu, Oct 01, 2020 - Fri, Oct 02, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260734
SPC AC 260734
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020
Valid 291200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Most recent medium-range model guidance is in relatively good
agreement that a dry continental air mass will cover much of the
CONUS early D4/Tuesday. A cold front will extent along the eastern
edge of this air mass, likely stretching from a low from western
Quebec southwestward along the Appalachians into the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of this
front as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day D4/Tuesday.
Deep southwesterly flow will result in moderate vertical shear,
resulting in the potential for a few more robust/organized updrafts.
However, limited destabilization is currently expected to keep the
overall severe coverage low, precluding the need to outlook any
areas.
00Z guidance has come into better agreement regarding the potential
development of an upper low over the Southeast on D5/Wednesday. The
eastward progression of this low (and evolution of an attendant
surface low) could contribute to severe potential across the
Carolinas. However, more consistency within the guidance is still
needed for greater overall forecast confidence.
From D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, dry and stable conditions are
currently forecast for the majority of the CONUS.
..Mosier.. 09/26/2020
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