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Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 30, 2020
Updated: Wed Sep 30 08:59:03 UTC 2020
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 30, 2020
Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 30, 2020
Day 4 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 5 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 30, 2020
Day 5 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 6 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 30, 2020
Day 6 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 30, 2020
Day 7 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook Graphics Issued on Sep 30, 2020
Day 8 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D4Sat, Oct 03, 2020 - Sun, Oct 04, 2020 D7Tue, Oct 06, 2020 - Wed, Oct 07, 2020
D5Sun, Oct 04, 2020 - Mon, Oct 05, 2020 D8Wed, Oct 07, 2020 - Thu, Oct 08, 2020
D6Mon, Oct 05, 2020 - Tue, Oct 06, 2020 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 300856
   SPC AC 300856

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020

   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Upper pattern characterized by western CONUS ridging and eastern
   CONUS troughing will likely persist through the weekend before then
   losing amplitude and trending a bit more progressive early next
   week. Overlap between any instability and strong vertical shear is
   expected to be minimal, with medium-range guidance providing no
   indications of widespread severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorms do
   appear possible on across portions of the southern Plains on
   D4/Saturday and the Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday, ahead of a cold
   front sweeping southward/southeastward. Thereafter, predictability
   and forecast confidence are limited due to large differences within
   the model guidance.

   ..Mosier.. 09/30/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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